Dear Mr. Trump, are you really keeping your promises?
Well, your machinery in digital marketing is convincing us that you are probably the only politician who keeps his promises after he was elected and inaugurated into the white house. It’s not even a surprise because you were never a politician before.
Considering the energy which was put into debates and in some cases also into executive orders about abortion, the rights of LGTB community, immigration, social expenditures, repealing Obamacare, taking care for veterans and improving the army, cutting taxes for SMEs, building a wall at the border to Mexico etc., it seems that you are correct and you are really doing what you have promised to do. I just hope that you put these issues first, only because you know that these issues are less important and because you know that you also need some more experience within the white house before undertaking any important decisions, like transforming the FED or all issues about US foreign policy.
The problem, which occurs, is just the fact that the clock is ticking. Let me just remind you that you were talking a lot about the bursting bubbles and the dangers of the end of your petrodollar. And everything that Obama has made worse in this respect, you already made it even worse. That is to say, the bubbles are much bigger now and it seems that with this speed we can get the Dow Jones to 100,000 points within the next 3 years.
I’m sure that shareholders would like it, investment funds would love it, banks would admire it and the whole Wall Street would change from your greatest enemy to your greatest friend.
However, I’m afraid that the people, who voted for you, were not voting for this scenario. Who would be ready to go to vote if the only choice they could make is the choice between the Wall Street, which controls the democrats, and the Wall Street, which controls the republicans. By appointing Mr. Steven Mnuchin as your treasury secretary, you probably just confirmed that the choice, which people have, looks exactly as the earlier mentioned one.
But will he follow your wish to restore the industry in the US? Sorry, but he can’t because for the financial world the trade and industry don’t exist – they just represent another form of capital. So some 6 years ago, when 1 EUR was 1.5 USD, the US had a position in international trade, but today (March 9, 2017), when 1 EUR is worth only 1.05 USD, the US have a different kind of position in international trade.
But instead of stopping this crazy ride of your currency, you imagine that you can implement import taxes although we all know that protectionism causes protectionism and other countries will respond with counter measures.
Well, despite of all, you are still thinking about the next FED rate hike. Nice, at least the bubbles could stop growing but if such a hike will not be followed by Draghi and Kuroda than the value of your currency will normally rise further. And you know why? Your treasury secretary just thinks about how he could repay 3600 Billion USD of your debt this year and for him it’s much easier when capital flows into the US continue which normally could only be achieved when you have a further rate hikes and a further rise in the value of your currency. This scenario prevents investors of selling your bonds and even stimulates investors to buy these.
However, in this crazy situation, when your currency is rising further against Japanese yen, it only looks like the US are strong but the reality is that your debt will grow and if today Japan has some 1130 Billion USD of your worthless bonds, tomorrow this number will be even bigger which is, by the way, probably also the main goal set by your treasury secretary. If trade and industry in the US will suffer – who cares, because your treasury secretary will make your debts grow again and everything should be ok?
So, dear Mr. President, before we came to the logical conclusion that the US would need further wars to install new puppet governments, who will be ready to buy worthless US bonds to finance your growing debts, I think it’s time to reflect. Look at yourself in the mirror and compare with what you see here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c40iTVL6bS4
Once a tiger you became a small cat. Now tell me, where do you see that you keep your promises which you made before you were president? You made a choice with your treasury secretary on the basis of what? He arranged some 900 million USD credit for your company with a bank consortium led by Goldman Sachs, or what? Or is he the only one who actually knows where to get the missing 3600 billion USD this year? Or can he convince Yellen to wait with the rate hike until he grabs this missing 3600 billion USD from the capital markets for the old lower price? Or do you think it’s fair that state finances are now controlled by the expert who already proved himself during your elections campaign? But, dear Mr. President, this guy has spent 17 years with Goldman Sachs and a few years ago Goldman was also talking about a currency relations where 1 EUR should be only 0.8 USD.
If you think that the US should proceed with this way than I have to tell you that at this point you will not only buy German cars like crazy, but you will also eat frozen German ice cream, and almost all of you will learn Japanese and Chinese, as they will be the owners of whole Manhattan. Sorry, I thought that “America first” does not mean that you want to sell it.
Well, dear Mr. President, what you are currently doing looks like a democratic approach to the economic policy and a republican approach to the human rights, but I would rather prefer the other way around. And I’m afraid I’m not the only one!
And I’m afraid that you need a new treasury secretary and her name is Dr. Judy Shelton. And you need a new chair of the FED and her name is Danielle di Martino Booth. You know this, I know this, and pretty much the whole world knows this. We are not in a 1929 crisis where you could appear with communists’ Keynes theories about rebuilding US infrastructure because your state account is empty and on top of that, as already mentioned, 3600 billion USD are needed to repay the debt this year.
You promised to the people also lower taxes which could bring a better return in quantity – but not in the first year, and hence I think it’s time to be honest and to tell the people that rebuilding US infrastructure will proceed much slower than previously expected, especially if you also want to modernize the army out of nowhere (here you also want to increase the expenditures by 10%).
Tell the truth – the sooner the better! Unless you want to finance all this with helicopter money (money from heaven). But then again the question arises: How is it possible that the republican Mnuchin got 47 out of 53 votes in the senate if there had not been plenty votes for him from the democrats? There surely had been some. Not just because of his knowledge and experiences but first of all because the Goldman logic is similar to the “logic” of the democrats! And dear Mr. President, you are following the economic logic from the democrats. You already work for the establishment!
The date and place for the first personal meeting with Mr. Putin was not even set yet and it will surely take at least additional 3 months from the announcement of that date and place until you both actually meet. And the problem is that the logic “America first” is not reasonable for countries like Bosnia if this country has maybe just 4 more months to live. And if it could die without a new war I would be very happy.
So, dear Mr. President Trump, you can’t just simply ignore it now because the whole situation there was screwed up already in times of the Clinton administration and you just don’t feel responsible for it, personally.
The most important thing for us to understand is the fact that during the time when you are not interfering, the things are proceeding the old Obamas crazy fashion way. So, it’s not just in Bosnia but also in Ukraine, Syria, Turkey and more or less throughout the whole world. The main strategic direction of American foreign policy in last decades could be summarized in just 2 points.
1. We are against Russia. It’s not important if our decisions are good for this world - these just have to be against Russia.
2. We don’t have courage to fight against Russia alone. So let’s find Muslims, Europeans and whomever else to fight against Russia instead of us.
Yes, dear Mr. Trump, you know it already, that’s how ISIS was created and how 2 Muslim countries on the Balkans have emerged (Bosnia and Kosovo). None of these countries existed before the second world war and Kosovo emerged from heaven 9 years ago. But it’s not enough. Ukraine and Montenegro should also be a part of the NATO just because somebody is afraid that otherwise they could fall under Russian influence.
So, dear Mr. Trump, could some Americans go to pee without to think about Russia? Is there an end to this crazy obsession, which has its roots in a wrong perception that god has put Russia on this earth just for wars and not to make business with her?
Almost 30 years ago, we had a month full of protesting against Serbian leader Miloševič, who implemented economic sanctions against my country Slovenia. And we all had the capability to recognize such a move in international trade as totally inappropriate. Nowadays, I miss this same capability and the same approach – not just in relation to Russia but in all relations worldwide.
After Slovenia and Croatia have declared their independence in 1991, the world has approved this the following year (EU on 15th of January, Russia on 14th of February and the US on April 7th of 1992). Nowadays, as Donetsk and Lugansk want to separate from Ukraine, all the world (except of Russia, normally) is protesting and talking about the Ukraine rights. Why could we now not do what we have already done in 1991 in the Balkans? And we could have 2 referendums about the independence of these regions? Maybe it’s just the direction, which is wrong, as Slovenia and Croatia wanted to go west and Donetsk and Lugansk wanted to go east? Or should we, after all these years, further sell the fairy tales of how Slovenian and Croatian secession from Yugoslavia in 1991 was legal on the basis of the Yugoslav constitution from 1974? Let’s be honest. If Slovenia and Croatia would have the desire to join Russia in 1991, would the West confirm their independence in 1992? But Russia did recognize Slovenia and Croatia although she knew that they are on their way to the West. And Russia did that even before the US managed to do it. But 9 years ago, the US even managed to declare Kosovo as a state. Please tell me: on the basis of what?
So, dear Mr. Trump. Do you know why Nikita Khrushchew has granted Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 for nothing? Well, I don’t know, but you should be well informed before you meet with Russian president because he probably doesn’t know either!
So, let’s go back to our powder keg because this is what Bosnia really is. First of all, for the Clinton administration it was not enough to observe how hard the cohabitation of many different churches in a case of Jerusalem is and that’s why they had to have another similar pattern also in Europe. And so the US administration has recognized Bosnia and Hercegovina already on the same day as the US recognized Slovenia and Croatia. The art of thinking that such a country could be a peaceful homeland for Croats, Serbs and Muslims (later called Bošnjaks) broke apart pretty soon as every normal person on this earth has expected because there has been no peace in Jerusalem for decades. And Synagogue, Catholic, Orthodox, and Muslim churches should live in harmony? Well they did not and Bosnia was the war area for 4 more years until in 1996 the so called Dayton agreement was signed. And there is only one thing worse than an American mistake in international affairs. It’s to observe the way and art how Americans are willing to repair what can’t be fixed anymore or can’t be repaired at all! And Dayton is just the result of this second activity because it was too hard to acknowledge how wrong the decision from 1992 was, the US made it even worse in 1996. But what can’t be repaired in 25 years can’t be repaired at all!
So, the Dayton agreement gave half of the country to the Serbs and the rest should be for the Croats and Bošnjaks who have the great majority in this second half. To Croats the formation of their own third territorial entity, called Hercegbosna, was not allowed. And the US is probably now astonished why the number of Croats living in Bosnia and Hercegovina is only half the number of 1996? For the description of this crazy situation, allow me just one more statement from Miroslav Lajčak, who became the EU Special Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2007 and kept this position until March 2009.
“I’m leaving because I don’t want to ride a dead horse anymore!”
Dear Mr. President, this horse was never alive and the US is riding this dead horse for almost 25 years now! Is it maybe again just because of Russia? I know that you are focused on domestic issues but your local issues also have global impact. And that is not the main reason why I’m writing to you.
It’s the second month of your mandate and it’s better to fix the right course at the beginning as trying to do the same too late. I’m not standing in your shoes and yes – I might be wrong and I hope to be wrong. It’s just that I don’t like to miss the target in politics and this was the case also last year when my predictions about Brexit and your victory turned out correct later.
You don’t need to ask every second day on Twitter if you still have our support. Yes, you have it because without your victory we would probably be already witnessing radioactive raindrops in the Ukraine and I’m also sure that one more mandate of Obama would bring Israel to the limits of survival. And if you ever really keep your words, it was in this case and for this new wind of support blowing towards Jerusalem for which I would be specifically grateful.
You said many times that Obama has created the mess, but dear Mr. President, he created the mess worldwide and not only in the US. So, when you think how to solve the problems, then you think again “America first”, but I have to tell you that you have probably never been a fireman because a fireman never drives home first but first of all to the place where the fire is.
So, dear Mr. President, I would suggest you proceed in 4 steps.
First of all, I think you should call Mrs. Becky Norton Dunlop. This time not for a free advice but because of an agreement where she should be in charge to organize the meetings with the Russian president.
Secondly, somebody would have to make a call to Frankfurt and Tokio otherwise FED rate hikes will just fulfill your short-term desire for additional capital, but 3 months later you will already have a heavy headache.
As a step number 3, I would like to suggest some sort of mini form of the gold standard. We can’t go back to 1971 when the FED had to buy gold for 350,000 USD for each new printed million USD. But if this 35% covering level is unreachable, then we can normally begin just with 3.5%. If you sign that there should always be at least 3.5% in the value of gold in the FED cellars to compare with FED monetary aggregate M2, then you will be a hero because such a move means the end of wars on the planet earth and the stocks bubbles also become history.
Finally number 4: let me just explain why I don’t like Russia too much. They came into my town long time ago and they bought a spa. The transaction was not transparent and the money was traveling through many stairs. We needed 2 years to finally find out that the spa, called Terme Maribor, had been bought by Gazprom. And that’s the way how the Russians make business. Some millions never reach the sellers’ account.
But dear Mr. President Trump, afterwards your cowboys came into my town and they bought a bank in my town called Nova KBM. Well, I have to admit that the transaction has had fewer steps and stairs than in the mentioned Russian case, however in the future I would like to ask both sides to stop bullshitting. Your capital is welcome here but please don’t throw away your money just for the masks. The time of masquerading is over. I just have a wonderful destination for your personal meetings but I don’t have a place for your washing machines. So what I mean under number 4 is: You have to close Delaware. I know that a lot of American establishment will be against such a decision but before you put efforts to close washing machines in Taiwan, Lichtenstein, Switzerland, Austria etc. you have to close down your own washing machine in Delaware.
Remember: America first!
The rest of the western civilization is just your reflection and once all the republicans and democrats in the US have closed accounts in Delaware, you would not need to explain why all the other washing machines worldwide would have to close. Otherwise, all of the normal world thinks that you are just closing your competition to be able to control all the accounts worldwide but no one has the right to close your dirty storage in your own backyard.
So, dear Mr. President, America first, my country Slovenia second and Wall Street last! Can you do that? I hope and pray you can. All the best wishes from me to you for your success.
Yours faithfully,
Boris Gerjovič
mag. Boris Gerjovič (MBA) is an independent and self-employed investment and business consultant who was born in Maribor, Slovenia, where he received his Masters Degree (MBA) in 1993. Since university, Boris has been providing business seminars, workshops and lectures around the world. He has showed his real power for the first time on May 29th, 2010, in Trakoščan (Croatia) at the Entrepreneurs and Diplomats Weekend where he was the lecturer with the main topic: Intensive integration and revitalization of economic cooperation in the SEE region. As an analyst, he has been publishing academic papers on macroeconomics, currencies and precious metals. His article “The truth about the impact of interest rates on the price of gold“ was published worldwide. As an external consultant, Gerjovič has worked for various corporations (including the Chamber of Commerce in Slovenia, Raiffeisen Bank, Nova Kreditna Banka, Slovene Post Bank, KD Group, International Golf cup for managers) in the fields of market research, customer relationship management, PR and commercial presentations. Nowadays, Mr. Gerjovič is active in launching new brands and new products (own patents and innovative products) to the market.
Somewhere deep inside, it seems that for him it’s not enough to be on 86 websites worldwide as he was in May and June of 2015, when he successfully described the real relations between interest rates and the price of gold (opposite to the mass media and the Fed´s description).
And so his second article with the title “The downturn of the EU” was published in January 2016, when Brexit was introduced as inevitable:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2366771-rockstone/4692296-downturn-eu
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/8240610-niedergang-eu
Being a somewhat economic or/and political Nostradamus 6 months before the actual decision about the Brexit was again not enough and so he was talking about Trumps victory on October 20th and October 28th 2016 on his seminars in Maribor and Ljubljana in Slovenia where he showed some pictures which have never been in the mass media before. At the same time almost every prognostic chart in the US was showing some 7 to 9% advantage for Hillary Clinton. On September 14th 2016, journalist Emily Flitter from Reuters in New York has made an e-mail question to Mr. Gerjovič because she wanted to know more about his ability to recognize the scenes behind the Brexit. The same journalist has made an exclusive interview with Mr. Donald Trump in his Trump tower in New York 5 months earlier.
PREVIOUS COVERAGE
Boris Gerjovic´s first research "The Truth About The Impact Of Interest Rates On The Price Of Gold" can be read here.
His second paper, "The Downturn of the EU", can be read here.
AUTHOR CONTACT
mag. Boris Gerjovič MBA
boris.gerjovic@gmail.com
COPYRIGHT
The exclusive right to the above research belongs to the author, mag. Boris Gerjovič, whereas Rockstone Research serves as publisher. The research paper is made accessible free of charge and as an open file. The research may be reviewed and reprinted, either whole or in part, without prior permission from the author and the publisher as long as appropriate attribution and citation is included, such as “Author: Boris Gerjovič, Rockstone Research www.rockstone-research.com”; any reprint must include the original title of the research, the author´s name, and the full text (or a verbatim excerpt) of the research. We would welcome if reviewed or reprinted versions are announced to the author via email boris.gerjovic@gmail.com and/or the publisher via info@rockstone-research.com.
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